o
f grains and meat," he said.
In 2000 the Black Sea region
only exported 4% of all wheat and
corn combined. Today that's 34%
of the world's wheat alone. "They
are the world's largest wheat ex-
porter by a long shot. They deter-
mine the world's wheat prices,"
Basse said.
Although cattle markets stabi-
lized after taking a tumble in early
fall, Basse sees bearish trends on
the horizon, especially considering
how the World market fits in to play.
"What I'm troubled by when I
look at U.S. beef, pork and poultry
exports as a percent of the world
total, everything is starting to
turn down," he said, again blaming
the dollar.
Mature economies like Europe,
Japan and Russia see meat con-
sumption decline in tandem with
their population decreases. By
2 0 4 0 , h e e x p e c t s t h o s e t h r e e
to drop by a combined nearly 100
million people.
F
or years, economists have
pointed to countries like Pakistan,
Bangladesh, Nigeria and India to
help provide population growth,
and growing markets for ag com-
modities, but Basse said it may
take several more years for their
economies to generate enough in-
come to become leading buyers.
In the near-term, Ag Resource
predicts "one final rally in the cattle
market," sometime in the fall.
Based on modeling historical first
quarter cattle prices, Basse sees
prices settling closer to $134/cwt.
in the first quarter of 2016.
Basse said the idea is to manage
risk and margin.
"Commodities are cyclical. I'm
talking bearish today in agricul-
ture, but it's just part of the land-
scape we all live in," Basse said.
"You've got to make sure you're
around for when the good times
are rolling again."
FL
12 FEED•LOT November 2015
MARKETING
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